[SMM midday review] China's trade surplus expanded by 42.3% 10 months before the rebound of non-ferrous metal green and thin red fertilizer

SMM, November 8, this morning most of the non-ferrous metals market rose, of which by noon, Shanghai copper rose 0.42%, Shanghai aluminum rose 0.72%, Shanghai tin, Shanghai nickel rose about 0.1%, Shanghai zinc, Shanghai lead light green.

In terms of macro data, according to customs statistics, China's foreign trade imports and exports increased by 2.4 percent in the first 10 months. In the first 10 months of this year, China's imports and exports of goods totaled 25.63 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.4 percent over the same period last year. The trade surplus was 2.35 trillion yuan, an increase of 42.3 percent. "General Administration of Customs: the total value of trade between China and the United States decreased by 10.6 per cent to $3.07 trillion

On the copper side, according to SMM research data, the operating rate of copper pipe enterprises in October was 73.63%, up 9.43 percentage points from the same period last year, and down 4.43 percentage points from the previous month. (research enterprises: 19, production capacity: 2.13 million tons) Copper pipe enterprises started a small decline in October, mainly due to the National Day holiday part of the factory vacation impact, in addition, terminal air conditioning enterprises continue to high inventory role, also made some copper pipe enterprises demand order performance has declined, see details "[SMM analysis] in October copper pipe start performance year-on-year performance of copper pipe processing fees unexpectedly reduced

With regard to aluminum, the Ministry of Geology and Mineral Resources of Guinea recently reviewed and approved a study report on the bauxite mining project of K é bo Energie S.A. In 2016, K é bo Energie S.A obtained a prospecting licence for a bauxite block located between the three provinces of Gaoual, T é m é l é and Bok é in the Bocai region of Guinea, spanning three provinces. According to the research report, K é bo Energie S.A plans to mine 10 million tons of bauxite a year; in addition, it plans to invest in an alumina plant that is scheduled to start production in 2024 and produce 2.6 million tons of alumina a year.

In terms of lead, at the South China Summit, SMM believed that with the gradual elimination of recycled lead "three no" enterprises and the easing of raw material competition in the market, the new expansion plan of recycled lead in licensed enterprises has increased, making up for the reduction of recycled lead in the unlicensed market, thus promoting the increase in the production of recycled lead in large-scale enterprises. With the continuous promotion of the process of industrial structure optimization and the pressure of environmental protection supervision, recycled lead instead of primary lead has become a trend.

On the black side, the overall decline continued. Iron ore tumbled more than 1.8% and thread hot rolls fell 0.9%. With regard to steel mills, Futures Daily recently said that in terms of steel mill profits, judging from the current situation, after the profits of long and short process steel mills have dropped, the output has also shown signs of convergence between the peak season and the off-season, and the supply side has taken the initiative to alleviate the pressure and prevent the mismatch from being magnified. At present, at the time node of real estate rush construction, the performance of short-term steel toughness is more due to the lack of annual remaining construction period, and the site is stepping up the preparation of goods and striving for early completion. In recent weeks, the average daily turnover of building materials has been maintained at more than 200000 tons, which is also confirmed by this. On the inventory side, after entering November, social inventory fell to 3.7217 million tons, down 7.25 percent from the previous month, and the decline for four consecutive weeks was also the main reason for the strength of the disk.

Crude oil fell 0.63% in the previous period. In terms of data, data released by the General Administration of Customs in the morning showed that China imported 45.511 million tons of crude oil in October and 414.545 million tons from January to October. China imported 2.216 million tons of refined oil products in October and 24.85 million tons from January to October. The data also show that China exported 5 million tons of refined oil products in October and 52.754 million tons from January to October.

As of 11:45, the LME Metal Mini Futures quotation launched by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange shows:

Today's stock

Zinc: Guangdong zinc mainstream transaction in 18600-18700 yuan / ton, the offer is concentrated in Shanghai zinc 1912 contract discount 10 to Pingshui, Guangdong stock market than Shanghai stock market discount is stable at 90 yuan / ton yesterday. Refinery shipments are normal, the market supply is very abundant. In the morning, the holder quotation concentrated in the 12 contract flat water near, enters the second trading session, the zinc price continues yesterday's low consolidation situation, the trader supports the rising water desire is strong, the quotation is still concentrated in the 12 contract discount 10 yuan / ton to the flat water or so. Zinc price low narrow range shock, rising water is more stable, superimposed weekend storage demand, downstream bargain mining enthusiasm is on the high side. On the whole, today's dealers contribute from the downstream, the trading atmosphere is better. Yi Qilin, Cishan, Tiefeng, Mengzi mainstream transactions in 18600-18700 yuan / ton near.

The mainstream transaction of zinc ingots in Tianjin market was 18670-20060 yuan / ton, the mainstream transaction of Tianjin brand was 18670-18800 / ton, and the rising water of 1912 contract was about 30-120 yuan / ton. The rising water of Tianjin market was stable at about 10 yuan / ton compared with Shanghai stock market. Today, the high-priced brand refinery did not ship to Tianjin, the market, high-priced supply circulation tightened, mostly pre-sale supply, and the general supply is more loose. The quotation of the pre-sale source of the high-priced brand is concentrated in the vicinity of 120 yuan / ton to the 12 contract, and the quotation for the supply of the ordinary brand is about 3060 yuan / ton to the 12 contract. Today, the disk low narrow shock, ordinary brands and high-price brands pre-sale supply, rising water is basically the same as yesterday, high-priced brands spot supply tension rising water up obviously, downstream trading due to weekend warehouse demand slightly better. On the whole, the transaction today is slightly better than yesterday. Zi Zijin, Hongye, lark, Chihong, Xikuang, etc., were traded in 18670-18800 yuan / ton, and Zijin, Chihong and Hongye were traded in 18620-18750 yuan / ton.

The mainstream transaction of zinc in Shanghai was 18730-18770 yuan / ton, and that of Shuangyan was 18740-18770 yuan / ton, that of zinc was 90 yuan / ton in December, that of Shuangyan was 90-100 yuan / ton in December, and that of zinc was 18660-18700 yuan / ton. Shanghai Zinc 1912 shock downward, after the continuation of narrow operation, the first trading session in the morning closed at 18650 yuan / ton. In the first trading session, due to the concussion of zinc price at the beginning of the session, the holder of ordinary brand zinc ingots quoted price of 1912 contract rose 90 yuan / ton, in addition to the SMM net average price flat water quotation, the second trading period, zinc price continued shock market, the market spot water is strong, the basic quotation to the 1912 contract rose 90 yuan / ton; Zinc prices continue a weak market, downstream bargain buying, the market trading mood is better, the trading market is active, spot rising water is strong, on the whole, today's market trading is general.

Lead: Guangdong market South China lead 16150 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead discount 50 yuan / ton quotation; lead price continues the downward trend, but the recycled lead still maintains the deep discount, the downstream still gives priority to purchase the recycled refined lead, the primary lead market trading is difficult to change the light situation, waiting for the recycled lead sticking situation. Henan Yuguang, Wanyang, Jinli and other smelters are mainly long single transactions; Jinli 16100 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead discount 100 yuan / ton (traders); lead prices continue to decline, smelters began to long single-based, wait-and-see mood has improved, but by the impact of recycled lead prices, the primary market transactions are bleak. Other areas such as: Hunan Shuikoushan 16100-16150 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead discount 50 to 100 yuan / ton quotation (traders); Jiangxi copper industry 16200 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead flat quotation; Guangxi Hechi south 16070 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead discount 130 yuan / ton; Anhui bronze crown 16200 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM net level quotation; Yunnan small factory quoted 15850 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead discount 350 yuan / ton. Lead prices fluctuate downward, downstream consumption is light, and overall transactions are in the doldrums.

Tin: in the spot market, the mainstream transaction price this morning is 136500-138500 yuan / ton. Enterprises downstream of the market purchase on demand, and a small number of traders make up goods on a bargain basis. Shanghai tin spot market overall transaction atmosphere is general. Shanghai tin 2001 contract set Yunxi rising water 800 yuan / ton, ordinary cloud word flat water-discount 200 yuan / ton, small brand discount 300500 yuan / ton.

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